Convergence Briefs

Each brief connects a specific policy question to the structured analytical framework. Claims are anchored to ITB modules with full epistemic tagging (Fact, Inference, Uncertain, Speculation).

Primary publication: Iran: The Convergence Briefs on Substack. Markdown and PDF copies are available below for archival access.

PDF bundles: GitHub Releases

Executive Summary & Introduction

What You Need to Know About Iran Right Now

Executive summary of the Convergence Briefs series.

Current v1.0
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The Convergence Briefs

Series introduction and methodology.

Current
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Published Briefs

B01: The Blind Spot in Every Iran Deal

Why Western negotiation models are built for the wrong adversary.

Stable v2.0
Read on Substack | MD

B02: The Country Inside the Country

Why every plan for Iran gets the IRGC wrong.

Current v2.1
Read on Substack | MD

B03: Iran Is Not Iraq

And anyone who plans as if it is will create something worse.

Stable v2.0
Read on Substack | MD

B04: The Spoiler

The faction inside Iran that has blocked every nuclear deal for 19 years.

Stable v2.0
Read on Substack | MD

B05: The Deal That Cannot Hold

Why the Iran nuclear deal fails on three fronts.

Current v3.0
Read on Substack | MD

B06: The Day After

What determines whether the regime survives the next strike.

Current v3.1
Read on Substack | MD

B07: Who Is Running Iran Now?

The post-succession power map: six nodes, no center.

Current v2.0
Read on Substack | MD

B08: The Puppet Problem

Why Iran's next Supreme Leader may not matter.

Current v1.0
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B09: The Doctrine Behind the Escalation

Why military strikes are the beginning of negotiations, not the end.

Current v1.0
Read on Substack | MD

B10: The Table After the Bombs

What post-strike negotiations actually look like.

Current v1.0
Read on Substack | MD

B11: The Clock Was Already Running

How Operation Epic Fury was planned while diplomacy was performed.

Current v1.0
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B12: The Succession Contest

Iran's Supreme Leader is dead. What comes next determines everything.

Current v1.0
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B13: The Mediator Problem

Iran has struck every country that could have saved it.

Current v1.0
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B14: The Theory-of-Victory Gap

Why nobody has articulated a plausible endgame.

Draft v1.0

Emergency & Supplemental

EB01: The Children in the Compound

What no one is telling you about the school that was bombed in Iran.

Current v2.0
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Flash Analysis: The Parallel Society Collateral Problem

Supplemental analysis on collateral impact patterns.

Current v2.0
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Note: The primary publication channel is Substack. Markdown and PDF copies hosted here are secondary archival versions, automatically built from the baseline repository whenever brief data is updated.